By Peet Serfontein & Sithembile Bopela
We initiate a long position with a target price of $144.00 and a stop-loss of $95.00 (reward-risk ratio: 2.51:).
Deckers is a prominent footwear and apparel company that engages in designing, marketing, and distributing footwear, apparel, and accessories developed for casual lifestyle use and high-performance activities.
Over the years, Deckers has expanded its portfolio through strategic acquisitions, including popular brands UGG and Hoka One. Decker's commitment to innovation and quality has solidified its position in the global market, making it a notable player in the footwear and apparel industry.
Technically, a trough in the Elliot Wave structure makes the stock a promising investment opportunity (see the insert on the main chart). This trough follows an extended corrective decline from the Wave 3 peak, marking a potential exhaustion of bearish momentum. Price stabilisation at this level, combined with the historical rhythm of wave alternation, suggests that a reversal or bullish setup may be forming.
The average monthly performance since 2000 also supports a bullish bias.
Fading downside price momentum per the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, a trough in the Coppock Curve, as well as the recent sideways trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, supports our bullish view.
We suggest a medium at-risk capital allocation for this trade.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | DECK |
| Industry | Consumer Durables & Apparel |
| Market Capital (USD) | 16.57 billion |
| One Year Total Return | -21.33% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -46.26% |
| Current Price (USD) | 109.15 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 223.98 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 93.72 |
| Financial Year End | March |
| The price is hovering around its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), reflecting strong long-term bullish sentiment in the stock. Expect some volatility in the price going forward. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 4.86 | 5.91 | 6.47 | 7.24 |
| Growth (%) | 21.6 | 9.43 | 11.99 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | - | - | - | - |
| Growth (%) | - | - | - | |
| Forward PE (times) | 18.00 | 18.47 | 16.88 | 15.07 |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | - | - | - | |
| Solid earnings growth is expected over the short to medium term. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view
| Share Name and Position | PANW US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
CTAS US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | 173.55 | 205.84 |
| Current | 181.54 | 208.28 |
| Movement | +4.6% | +1.2% |
|
The recent trough in the stock's price continues to attract attention. Testing its 200-day SMA. Fading downside price momentum remains supportive.
Our profit target remains at $228 with a trailing stop-loss at $152. Exit the trade around 25 June 2025. |
A bullish pennant pattern in the price continues to attract attention. Remains just above its 200-day simple moving average. The start of upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is maintained at $241, with a trailing stop-loss is established at the $193.50. Exit the trade around 25 June 2025. |
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