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Economics
commentary

Reports on consumer and property economics


The FNB House Price Index growth moved slightly lower in June, averaging 3.4%y/y from 3.8% in May (revised up from 3.7%). Slower price growth is on the back of softer demand, amid higher living costs and the waning interest rate support. Nevertheless, the home buying market remains resilient, as reflected by the still strong market volumes. We maintain our expectation of average house price growth of 3.5% y/y this year, lower than the 4.2% registered in 2021. As we show in this report, outcomes vary across market segments. We also provide a summary of our latest Estate Agents Survey, and an update on our property market outlook.


 

Reports on consumer and property economics


The FNB House Price Index growth moved slightly lower in May, averaging 3.7%y/y from 4.0% in April (revised up from 3.8%). Downward pressure on price is coming from the lower and middle-priced segments, while pricier segments continue on a recovery . Data up to March[1] shows that free standing properties are faring better than sectional title properties - consistent with the ongoing changes in housing needs.


 

Reports on consumer and property economics


The FNB House Price Index growth moved slightly lower in April, averaging 3.9%y/y from 4.1% in March (revised up from 3.7%). Price growth appears to have stabilised in the last few months, with overall support predominantly coming from pricier segments. Market strength indicators, derived from our Property Valuers database, show receding supply of properties on the market for sale, while demand growth remains in the positive territory, albeit slowing


 

Reports on consumer and property economics


The FNB House Price Index growth moved sideways in February, averaging 3.8% y/y. Price growth appears to have stabilised in the last few months, likely due to the receding supply of properties on the market for sale. The on-going Russia-Ukraine conflict could pose downside risks to the domestic housing market. If sentiment is significantly dampened as a result, then our expectations of a continued recovery in affluent segments in 2022 may, likewise, be dampened.


 

Economics Weekly 05 August 2022


Earlier this year, we outlined global developments that posed risks to global vehicle production. These included shortages of components, which we argued could be amplified by the Russian/Ukraine war, as well as pandemic-induced supply chain bottlenecks. Ripple effects from these shocks linger, but the impact is waning. However, the growing risk of recession in major economies such as the US, EU, and UK, could once again put pressure on global production. In this piece, we examine domestic passenger car sales to gauge consumer demand conditions.


 

Economic Update

Inflation


After troughing at 2.1% y/y in May 2020, due to a lockdown-driven fall in demand and statistical imputations, headline inflation accelerated to 5.2% y/y in May of 2021. CPI weights are typically updated at least every five years, in line with international standards. New weights will be introduced with the January 2022 data and the base year will change to December 2020.


 

Archive

Economic Update




 

Reports on consumer and property economics




 

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2021 Economic updates


July

Economic updates

2021 Reports on consumer and property economics


October

Property Barometer

September

Property Barometer

Property update

July

Property Barometer

June

Property Barometer

May

Property Barometer

April

Property Barometer

February

Property Barometer

January

Property Barometer

2020 Reports on consumer and property economics


November

Property Barometer

September

Property Barometer

August

Property Barometer

July

Estate Agents Survey Property Barometer

May

Property Barometer

April

Property Barometer

February

Property Barometer

January

Property Barometer