Economics weekly
What the 4Q24 Quarterly Bulletin tells us about the consumer
The South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) 4Q24 Quarterly Bulletin, released on 27 March, provides fresh insights into consumer finances. In this piece, we unpack key trends in household balance sheets, highlighting improving real wages, cautious debt management, and rising net wealth.
28 March 2025
Economics weekly
Monetary and fiscal policy: The nexus
The National Budget has finally been tabled, exhibiting tight fiscal manoeuvring as confidence and growth hang in the balance. Ultimately, the budget reflected slippage as spending pressures persist, and while tax increases have reduced the spillover to the deficit and borrowing requirement, fiscal policy is looser than previously envisioned. Importantly, this is at a time when monetary policy has gradually become less restrictive on economic activity and is expected to be neutral by the end of the year. Question is, does the fiscal outlook warrant more caution on the monetary front?
14 March 2025
Property
Signs of recovery amid changing buyer and investor trends
The latest FNB House Price Index (HPI) accelerated to 1.2% y/y in January, from 1.1% in December (revised from 0.9%).
27 February 2025
Economics Weekly
2025 Budget preview: Balancing fiscal consolidation and growth priorities
14 February 2025
Flash Notes
Mining output contracts in December, clouding 4Q24 GDP outlook
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) unexpectedly contracted by 2.4% y/y in December 2024, following a -0.9% y/y decline in November. This was weaker than the Reuters consensus forecast of a 1.0% y/y expansion.
13 February 2025
Economics Weekly
Multiple risks abound but sticking to fundamentals should usher in another cut
The past few years have been tumultuous and now that the probability of subsiding geopolitical tensions is rising, it is being substituted with mounting trade tensions. Unfortunately, less cooperative global trade and defence policies may raise supply-chain disruptions and fiscal consumption spending, with the result being reflationary pressure. However, prevailing fundamentals suggest that restrictive monetary policy has managed to contain inflation and that a continued interest rate cutting cycle in various parts of the globe is still supported, including in South Africa (SA).
24 January 2025
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