Flash Notes
Mining output down sharply in March, drags 1Q24 GDP growth
Total mining production, not seasonally adjusted, declined sharpy by 5.8% y/y in March, after expanding by 10.3% y/y (upwardly revised from 9.9% y/y) in February, in part, due to unfavourable base effects, the mid-March and Easter holidays as well as water shortages.
14 May 2024
Economics Weekly
Navigating economic challenges amid delayed interest rate cuts and global uncertainty
Following the weaker-than-expected economic activity during the first quarter, and our updated interest rates view, we have revised our growth projections. Persistent inflation, associated risks, and the delay in the US Fed interest rate cutting cycle underpin our revised domestic interest rate outlook. We now anticipate a delayed initiation of the rate-cutting cycle by the SARB, with the first cut expected to materialise only in November 2024, as opposed to July.
03 May 2024
Economics weekly
The global economy shows some resilience but we are not out of the woods yet
19 April 2024
Economics weekly
A portion of the economy is feeling the strain amid tighter financial conditions
Since the start of the interest rate hiking cycle in November 2021, interest rates have increased cumulatively by 475 basis points (bps), with the repo rate currently standing at 8.25% per year and the prime lending rate at 11.75%. This uptick has noticeably affected the portion of household income allocated to servicing debt, rising from an annualised nominal R312 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019 to R411 billion in the final quarter of 2023.
12 April 2024
Economics weekly
MPC perils: Sticky global inflation and adverse risk sentiment
The March 2024 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled to take place on Wednesday, 27 March. While we expect interest rates to remain unchanged, the messaging at that meeting remains key as many spectators of monetary policy around the globe seek indications of when interest rate cuts may be implemented.
22 March 2024
Property
A sideways movement in house prices, in line with expectations
The FNB House Price Index growth averaged 0.7% y/y in February, slightly lower than the 0.9% in January (revised from 0.6%). These low levels of house price appreciation should persist in the near term, amid still elevated living and borrowing costs, as well as heightened political uncertainty, both domestically and internationally.
13 March 2024
Disclaimer
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