By Thanda Sithole
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) unexpectedly contracted by 2.4% y/y in December 2024, following a -0.9% y/y decline in November. This was weaker than the Reuters consensus forecast of a 1.0% y/y expansion. Seasonally adjusted mining output, which directly impacts quarterly GDP growth, fell sharply by 3.9% m/m after flat growth in November (revised from -0.2% to 0%). As a result, mining output contracted by 0.3% in 4Q24, weighing on GDP growth. Combined with a 0.8% q/q contraction in manufacturing output and a 0.5% q/q decline in electricity production, this weak mining performance clouds the anticipated GDP rebound for 4Q24.
Outlook
Despite domestic and external demand challenges, mining output grew by a modest 0.4% in 2024, following a 0.1% increase in 2023 and a sharp 7.8% contraction in 2022. While the continued suspension of load-shedding and gradually stabilising logistics should support mining output recovery, risks remain. A challenging global trade environment, subdued commodity prices, and slowing growth in China pose significant headwinds.
Selected sector analysis
Eight out of twelve mining divisions posted growth in December; however, this was not enough to offset contractions in the remaining four divisions. Among the major divisions:
On the upside:
