By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
Shoprite Holdings is an investment holding company whose combined subsidiaries constitute the largest fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) retail operation on the African continent.
Founded in 1979, the group holds a strong presence in South Africa and several other countries through various brands including Shoprite, Checkers, Usave, OK, and Hungry Lion.
Technically, the stock is trading in a well-established inclining channel pattern. The price is currently testing the lower boundary of its long-term linear regression channel which provides strong technical support and means there is potential for mean reversion (see the black parallel upward trendlines on the main chart).
The recent sequence of consecutive bullish price swings, signalling renewed upward momentum and improving investor sentiment, supports a bullish case for the share as well (see the insert). In this pattern we see a cluster of green bars on the heatmap, which highlights consecutive bullish price swings, pointing to an upward shift in weekly price momentum.
The start of upside momentum, according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram indicator, supports our bullish stance.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R285.00.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | SHP |
| Industry | Consumer Staples |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 164.36 billion |
| One Year Total Return | -4.99% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -4.62% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 277.95 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 315.69 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 234.21 |
| Financial Year End | June |
| The price is testing its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of R280.52 from below. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | Y27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 14.27 | 15.60 | 17.27 | 19.32 |
| Growth (%) | 9.34 | 10.71 | 11.88 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 7.81 | 8.69 | 9.61 | 11.02 |
| Growth (%) | 11.28 | 10.59 | 14.66 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 17.82 | 16.10 | 14.39 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 3.13 | 3.46 | 3.96 | |
| Medium-term growth prospects remain positive with strong momentum expected over the next few financial periods. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Long term fundamental view
| Share Name and Position | SLM - Stop loss (Close the position) |
VAL - Buy (Continue to hold) |
CFR - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 91.20 | 850.00 | 2 980.00 |
| Current Price | 86.00 | 945.90 | 3 169.76 |
| Movement | -5.7% | +11.3% | +6.4% |
| Comment | The price breached our stop-loss level, and we closed the position. |
A price developing a rounding top pattern remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R1 063.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R838.00. |
The formation of wave one of the Elliott wave theory remains of interest. Testing its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R3 517.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R2 955.00. |
| Time to exit | 10 September 2025 | 28 April 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | GRT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SBK - Buy (Continue to hold) |
TBS - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 13.22 | 233.57 | 304.50 |
| Current Price | 14.050 | 241.48 | 304.12 |
| Movement | +6.3% | +3.4% | -0.1% |
| Comment |
A price trading at one of the highest price bins out of the price distribution analysis remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Fading upside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R16.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R12.85. |
A price holding above key support remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Fading upside momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R261.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R231.00. |
A strong price aligned with a rising Volume Price Trend (VPT), backed by sustained accumulation and buying interest, keeps the potential for further upside after consolidation in focus. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Downside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R345.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R288.00. |
| Time to exit | 17 November 2025 | 19 January 2026 | 27 October 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | DCP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
STXFIN - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | 32.60 | 21.75 |
| Current Price | 32.34 | 21.29 |
| Movement | -0.8% | -2.1% |
| Comment |
The price is developing a symmetrical triangle pattern, which remains of interest. Dipped below its 200-day simple moving average. Fading upside momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R37.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R31.00. |
Approaching a time exit, price action holding above major support remains of interest. The share is staying above its 200-day SMA, though fading momentum is a concern.
Our price target is R25.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R20.50. |
| Time to exit | 29 October 2025 | 15 September 2025 |
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