By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
McDonald's is a multinational fast-food corporation that franchises and operates fast-food restaurants in the global restaurant industry. The company's restaurants serve a variety of value-priced menu products in countries around the world.
The company enjoys a very strong market position that has been underpinned by robust organic growth (i.e., fast store rollouts, vast drive-through offerings as well as continued innovation). McDonalds' product range caters to diverse tastes and budgets, making the business less discretionary in nature. The convenience and affordability of products are particularly attractive during weaker economic environments.
Technically, the price is trading in a well-defined ascending channel, suggesting a promising investment opportunity (see the black parallel trendlines on the main chart). This pattern reflects healthy demand, with buyers consistently entering near the lower boundary and driving the price higher.
The price is approaching its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which reinforces a bullish outlook for the stock.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation for this trade.
McDonald's is also available as an FNB ETN and is listed on the JSE under the short codes MCETNC (with currency exposure) and MCETNQ (without currency exposure).
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | MCD |
| Industry | Consumer Services |
| Market Capital (USD) | 213.92 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 20.54% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 4.39% |
| Current Price (USD) | 2.99 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 3.26 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 2.46 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The share price is up year-to-date. With a beta of 1.37 we expect higher volatility compared to the market. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 11.72 | 12.26 | 13.27 | 14.46 |
| Growth (%) | 4.63 | 8.21 | 8.97 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 6.78 | 7.17 | 7.62 | 8.20 |
| Growth (%) | 5.72 | 6.26 | 7.71 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 24.40 | 22.54 | 20.69 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 2.40 | 2.55 | 2.74 | |
| The group remains well positioned to deliver steady growth over the medium term. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Long-term Fundamental view
| Share Name and Position | FTNT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BKR - Buy (Continue to hold) |
CMG - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 104.93 | 40.11 | 54.65 |
| Current Price | 104.81 | 40.02 | 52.38 |
| Movement | -0.1% | -0.2% | -4.2% |
| Comment | The price is holding above the 200-day SMA as Elliott wave five remains in focus. Downside momentum is fading, but the structure still favours continuation. Our price target is $120.00, with stop-losses at $99.00 and $99.50. | The price has consolidated in a rising wedge above key support after a positive earnings surprise. Still trades just below the 200-day SMA. Upside momentum is recovering. Our target remains at $45.00, with stop-losses at $38.00 and $38.30. | A wave five formation remains in focus, though the price remains below the 200-day SMA. Upside momentum is fading, which is a concern. Our target price is held at $64.00, with stop-losses at $51.00. |
| Time to exit | 7 October 2025 | 22 September 2025 | 17 October 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | ETN - Buy (Continue to hold) |
MET - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ABBV - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 334.86 | 79.32 | 185.72 |
| Current Price | 372.65 | 77.51 | 187.11 |
| Movement | +11.3% | -2.3% | +0.7% |
| Comment | A wave b development remains in focus ahead of earnings on 5 August. The price is holding well above the 200-day SMA, though momentum has stalled. Our target remains $395.00, with stop-losses at $311.00 and $349.00. | The stock is trading within a rising wedge below the 200-day SMA, marking this as a counter-trend setup. Momentum is fading, which adds caution. Our price target is held at $89.00, with a stop-loss at $74.00. | The stock is trading within an upward channel and continues to test the 200-day SMA, framing this as a counter-trend idea. Early signs of downside momentum raise concern. Our target price remains $216.00, with a stop-loss at $174.00. |
| Time to exit | 28 April 2026 | 29 August 2025 | 20 August 2025 |
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