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Trade Ideas

Global Trade Idea: Quest Diagnostics Inc. (DGX US) - BUY

 

Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene

We enter a long position with a target price of $205.00 and a stop-loss of $177.00.

Quest Diagnostics Incorporated is a leading United States (US)-based provider of diagnostic testing, information and services. The company operates a national network of full-service laboratories, rapid response laboratories, and patient service centres.

Quest provides insights that empower and enable a broad range of customers, including patients, clinicians, hospitals, health plans and employers. The company serves about one-third of the adult population in the US annually and ~50% of the physicians and hospitals in the US per year.

Technically, the combination of a bullish regime classification, positive trend and momentum signals, as well as an improving composite score, signals a potential investment opportunity. The pattern on the main chart illustrates the bullish support because all three regime components (trend, momentum and cycles) point to a constructive market environment.

A series of green Heikin-Ashi candles supports upside potential as well. This modified candlestick technique averages price data to smooth out market noise and better highlights trend direction. Fading downside price momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and the recent upward trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator also supports our bullish view.

Fading downside price momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and the recent upward trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator also supports our bullish view.

Share Information
Share Code DGX US
Industry Health Care Equipment & Services
Market Capital (USD) 20.6 billion
One Year Total Return 15.45%
Return Year-to-date .18%
Current Price (USD) 185.17
52 Week High (USD) 197.55
52 Week Low (USD) 157.20
Financial Year End December
The price is above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and above its 200-week SMA, which also supports a bull case for the stock, highlighting long-term structural demand.

Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)
FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD) 8.93 9.81 10.41 11.36
Growth (%) 9.84 6.15 9.11
Dividend Per Share (USD) 3.00 3.07 3.13 3.20
Growth (%) 2.37 1.86 2.30
Forward PE (times) 17.63 16.12 16.30
Forward Dividend Yield (%) 1.66 1.69 1.73
The company is expected to deliver steady earnings growth over the medium term, which remain supportive of our bullish outlook. Management also upgrade FY25 expectations following a strong performance over 3Q25.

Buy/Sell Rationale:

Technical Analysis:

    • The lower panel shows occurrence of the MACD indicator. The bullish crossover occurs when the MACD line crosses above its signal line, highlighting a shift in momentum from negative to positive. This pattern offers valuable confirmation of trend reversals or the early stages of new upward movements.
    • Our recommended entry range is between $183 to $187, or as close as possible to $185.17 - a drop below this range would indicate a substantial change in price dynamics, giving reason to negate the trade idea.
    • Our target price is $205, representing ~10.7% upside from current levels. According to forward calculations of the Relative Strength Index indicator, the share will be overbought at $285, making our profit target realistic.
    • Our proposed time to exit is the start of April 2026, but investors can adjust for a longer or shorter time horizon depending on price behaviour.
    • A drop below $177, or 4.4% below current levels, would suggest weakening technicals, and a stop-loss is recommended at this level.
    • We expect moderate price fluctuations and suggest a medium at-risk allocation for this trade. Increase exposure for a break above $187.

Fundamental view:

    • Quest Diagnostics operates primarily through two segments - Diagnostic Information (~83% of sales) provides information and insights based on the industry-leading menu of routine and advanced clinical testing and anatomic pathology testing while Diagnostic Solutions (~95% of revenue) mainly focuses on risk assessment services.
    • The company has a strong dominance in the US with more than 2 400 patient service centres that are located inside large retail stores or in convenient retail settings.
    • The group's recent performance over the last few periods was bolstered by strong demand for clinical solutions and a diligent focus on customer needs. This led to robust top- and bottom-line growth, extended presence in key markets, forged new collaborations with leaders across healthcare, and expanded the broad portfolio of diagnostic innovations to advance better health.
    • More recently, 3Q25 group revenue jumped 13.1% to $2.82 billion, supported by the broad-based adoption of the company's clinical innovations, contributions from acquisitions, and growth in the consumer channel.
    • Looking ahead, management remains confident in their ability to achieve strong organic growth. This follows their strategic agreement with Corewell Health to create a major lab services joint venture serving the state of Michigan. This will enable the company to deploy its comprehensive Co-Lab Solutions across Corewell's nearly two dozen hospitals.
    • From a risk perspective, the industry remains fragmented and highly competitive amid evolving technologies, new product introductions and new service offerings. Competitors may compete using advanced technology, including technology that enables more convenient or cost-effective testing. The company is also exposed to cybersecurity and data privacy threats, and any form of breach may be catastrophic to the company.

Share Name and Position AXON - Buy
(Close the position)
BKNG - Buy
(Close the position)
KO - Buy
(Continue to hold)
GNRC - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 620.52 5 195.76 71.24 170.45
Current Price 459.86 4 644.64 76.89 173.28
Movement -25.9% -10.6% +7.9% +1.7%
Comment The stock hit our stop-loss level, prompting us to close the position. The stock hit our stop-loss level, prompting us to close the position. An upward-sloping expected price path across some AI forecast horizons remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Strong upside momentum is supportive.

Our profit target is $80.00, with a trailing stop at $75.70.
The price remains in a developing inclining channel pattern and above its 200-day simple moving average. The start of upside price momentum supports the trade strategy.

Our profit target is $202.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $165.50.
Time to exit 21 April 2026 29 April 2026

<
Share Name and Position ARKK - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 78.22
Current Price 79.77
Movement +2.0%
Comment A developing broadening-bottom pattern in the price remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target is $98.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $75.15.
Time to exit 8 July 2026

FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of FirstRand Bank Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and authorised user of the JSE limited (Reg no: 1996/011732/07). This Publication note is issued by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions, and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd has bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment, or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2018 by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd.

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