By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R240. We recommend a stop-loss at R183.
MTN is a multinational telecommunications group offering voice and data network access and business solutions. From Sudan to South Africa, the MTN footprint spans many countries, connecting several hundred million people across Africa.
Technically, the price appears to be entering the early stages of wave 5 under Elliott Wave Theory, supporting a bullish outlook for the share (see the number notation one to five on the main chart). As the final advancing phase of the broader uptrend, wave 5 is typically associated with renewed buying interest and the potential for the share to challenge or exceed previous highs. While momentum can sometimes be less pronounced than in wave 3, the developing wave structure suggests further upside potential, provided key support levels continue to hold.
Seasonal return patterns become increasingly supportive from September onwards, reinforcing a bullish outlook for the share. While September has historically been slightly weaker, returns have typically strengthened through the final quarter, with October, November, and December delivering consistently positive performances. This suggests that any near-term weakness could provide an attractive entry point ahead of a seasonally stronger period into year end.
The share is currently testing its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at R194.53, a key long-term technical level that supports the bullish outlook. A successful hold above this level would suggest that buyers remain in control of the primary trend and could provide a foundation for renewed upside momentum, while a sustained break below it would weaken the constructive technical picture.
The upward trend in the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator supports a bullish outlook, suggesting that buying pressure is outweighing selling activity and that investors are gradually accumulating the share. This strengthening volume profile supports the potential for further upside.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R203.
Share performance
Share information
| Share Code | MTN |
| Industry | Telecommunication Services |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 366 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | 46.61% |
| Return Year-to-date | 20.72% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 199.60 |
| 52-Week High (ZAR) | 236.88 |
| 52-Week Low (ZAR) | 133.16 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The share price has outperformed year-to-date, as investors responded positively to improving operational momentum despite a recent pullback from July highs. | |
Consensus expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 13.59 | 17.39 | 21.93 | 26.40 |
| Growth (%) | 27.96 | 26.12 | 20.38 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 5.00 | 5.96 | 8.09 | 9.94 |
| Growth (%) | 19.18 | 35.68 | 22.97 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 11.48 | 9.10 | 7.56 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 2.99 | 4.05 | 4.98 | |
| Strong earnings and dividend growth are expected over the forecast period, with the share trading on an increasingly attractive valuation as the forward PE declines. | ||||
Buy/sell rationale
Technical analysis:
Long-term fundamental view:
Update on previous trade ideas
| Share Name and position | Entry | Current Price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHC SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 11.78 | 11.69 | -0.6% | Strong volume support remains encouraging as the price continues to test its 200-day SMA. However, stalled upside momentum raises concern. We maintain the R13.35 profit target, with a trailing stop-loss at R12.00. | 9 November 2026 |
| CML SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 43.21 | 43.05 | -0.4% | Price action remains of interest, with Elliott Wave analysis suggesting that wave 5 may be developing while the share continues testing its 200-day SMA. Stalled upside momentum remains a concern. We retain the R49.80 target, with a R42.00 trailing stop. | 26 October 2026 |
| SSW SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 43.49 | 51.84 | +19.2% | The breakout from a falling wedge remains encouraging as the price tests its 200-day SMA, while momentum supports the trade. We retain the R56.80 target, R38.50 initial stop-loss and R49.00 trailing stop. | 12 October 2026 |
| INL SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 135.08 | 141.28 | +4.6% | A developing ascending triangle pattern remains of interest, with the price holding above its 200-day SMA. Positive momentum continues to support the trade idea. We maintain the R153.00 target, alongside a trailing stop-loss at R138.00. | 21 September 2026 |
| SLM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 86.81 | 86.62 | -0.2% | Price action appears to be entering wave B under Elliott Wave theory, which remains of interest. Despite remaining below its 200-day SMA, fading downside momentum supports the trade. We retain the R98.00 target with a R84.00 trailing stop. | 27 September 2026 |
| BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 976.99 | 886.00 | -9.3% | The developing bullish pennant remains of interest, although the price is below its 200-day SMA and downside momentum is concerning. We retain the R1 202.00 target and a R885.00 trailing stop-loss. | 4 November 2026 |
